Modelling the potential consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England

Status: Report | First online: 11-12-2021 | Last update: 23-12-2021

Authors: Rosanna C Barnard*¹, Nicholas Davies*¹, Carl A.B. Pearson, Mark Jit & W John Edmunds.* corresponding author1 contributed equally

This study has not yet been peer reviewed.

We model the potential consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant on transmission and health outcomes in England, with scenarios varying the extent of immune escape; the effectiveness, uptake and speed of COVID-19 booster vaccinations; and the reintroduction of control measures. These results suggest that Omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England. The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020–2021.

Read the full report:

23rd Dec 2021: Updated version 2 of report.

16th Dec 2021: Preprint on medRxiv.

11th Dec 2021: Original report.