Covid-19

Multiple members of CMMID are working on the ongoing Covid-19 (previously referred to as novel coronavirus or nCov) outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This page shows an overview of our work. We regularly update this page with new and updated work.

Our group has made multiple interactive applications where some of our work can be explored further.

We also translated some of our posts in Chinese: 中文版

The list below shows all our work on this topic. To only show studies for a specific topic, select from the adjacent listlist above.

Studies

Status:

How many are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease? Rapid global, regional and national estimates for 2020

Status
Paper accepted at journal
First online
13-04-2020
Last update
03-06-2020

The risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries is needed to inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk. We evaluated the global prevalence of underlying conditions associated with severe COVID-19 disease.

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Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study

Status
Paper accepted at journal
First online
23-04-2020
Last update
26-05-2020

Combining novel setting-specific social contact data from over 40,000 individuals in the UK with a mathematical model of COVID transmission, we compare the potential effects of isolation, contact tracing and physical distancing measures on epidemic control.

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The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Status
Paper accepted at journal
First online
01-04-2020
Last update
01-04-2020

We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of COVID-19 intervention scenarios in the UK, including the introduction of school closures, social distancing, shielding of elderly groups, self-isolation of symptomatic cases, and extreme "lockdown"-type restrictions.

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Inferring cases from recent deaths

Status
Paper under peer review
First online
03-03-2020
Last update
04-03-2020

We infer the number of COVID-19 cases based on recently reported deaths. Results suggest that by the time a single COVID-19 death is reported, hundreds to thousands of cases may already be present in the population.

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