Using a corrected case fatality ratio, we calculate estimates of the level of under-reporting for any country with greater than ten deaths
Multiple members of CMMID are working on the ongoing Covid-19 (previously referred to as novel coronavirus or nCov) outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This page shows an overview of our work. We regularly update this page with new and updated work.
Our group has made multiple interactive applications where some of our work can be explored further.
We also translated some of our posts in Chinese: 中文版
We have divided our work on this topic under the following categories:
The list below shows all our work on this topic
We present the first results of an ongoing survey (CoMix) to track social contact behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic, and compare social mixing to patterns found in a previous survey.
We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of COVID-19 intervention scenarios in the UK, including the introduction of school closures, social distancing, shielding of elderly groups, self-isolation of symptomatic cases, and extreme "lockdown"-type restrictions.
We estimate critical care bed demand for COVID-19 cases in England for the next two weeks. Results suggest that current capacity might be reached or exceeded by the end of March 2020.
We discussed the current evidence on the role of climate on COVID-19 transmission.
We estimate timing of hitting particular case numbers by country in Africa.
We evaluated hypotheses for the age-distribution of COVID-19 cases reported.
Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship
To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.
To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.
To assess the impact of a range of control measures that reduce social mixing on data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China.
We estimate the proportion of observed cases that may have been caused by during the pre-symptomatic period of the corresponding primary cases.
We evaluated the overdispersion in the number of secondary transmissions of COVID-19
We infer the number of COVID-19 cases based on recently reported deaths. Results suggest that by the time a single COVID-19 death is reported, hundreds to thousands of cases may already be present in the population.
To assess the viability of isolation and contact tracing to control transmission from imported cases of 2019-nCoV.
To understand how human-to-human transmission varied in Wuhan during the early stages of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak.
To determine if interventions aimed at air travellers can delay establishment of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a previously unaffected country with no shared border with China.
We evaluated effectiveness of thermal passenger screening for 2019-nCoV infection at airport exit and entry to inform public health decision-making.
The transmissibility of novel Coronavirus in the early stages of the 2019-20 outbreak in Wuhan: Exploring initial point-source exposure sizes and durations using scenario analysis
To identify changes in the reproduction number during the course of the outbreak. This analysis will be updated with new data as the epidemic progresses.