We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission and economic model to explore different scenarios of immunisation programmes over ten years.
Multiple members of CMMID are working on the ongoing Covid-19 (previously referred to as novel coronavirus or nCov) outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This page shows an overview of our work. We regularly update this page with new and updated work.
Our group has made multiple interactive applications where some of our work can be explored further.
We also translated some of our posts in Chinese: 中文版
The list below shows all our work on this topic. To only show studies for a specific topic, select from the adjacent listlist above.
Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy.
Using a corrected case fatality ratio, we calculate estimates of the level of under-reporting for any country with greater than ten deaths
We evaluated routine surveillance/ testing strategies that can act as early warning systems in China.
We assessed the effectiveness of 13 groups of non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using panel analysis and time-series clustering.
We update the synthetic contact matrices with the most recent data, comparing them to measured contact matrices, and develop customised contact matrices for rural and urban settings. We use these to explore the effects of physical distancing interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic in a transmission model.
We explored the potential of combining backward contact tracing with more conventional forward contact tracing for control of COVID-19.
We simulated the arrival of travellers infected with SARS-CoV-2 from the EU and USA to the UK. We assessed the performance of various testing and screening policies in terms of reducing the number of travellers released while still infectious and the number of days they remain infectious.
To compare the health benefits of sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa with the risk of acquiring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection through visiting routine vaccination service delivery points.
We evaluated the effectiveness of the cordon sanitaire in Wuhan to delay or prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 in other major cities in mainland China.
Using flight data, prevalence estimates and incidence estimates combined, we calculate the ratio of expected imported cases and local incidence globally.
Simulated isolation, tracing and quarantine control strategies for SARS-CoV-2 in a real-world social network generated from high resolution GPS data.
Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases that were reported in 210 countries and territories. We then use these estimates to attempt to reconstruct the pandemic.
Systematic review of available literature and media reports to find clusters and extract settings type information.
We estimated the age-specific susceptibility to infection and probability of showing clinical symptoms.
The risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries is needed to inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk. We evaluated the global prevalence of underlying conditions associated with severe COVID-19 disease.
We compare the relative importance of COVID-19-related reductions in social contacts and health service delivery on TB burden
We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of COVID-19 intervention scenarios in the UK, including the introduction of school closures, social distancing, shielding of elderly groups, self-isolation of symptomatic cases, and extreme "lockdown"-type restrictions.
Projected epidemics in LMIC with and without interventions
We consider expanding the social bubble of either all households or only single occupance households or households with young children. We assess how the implementation of these strategies during lockdown impacts on the risk for Covid-19 resugence.
We analyse social contact data from Kenyan informal settlements to estimate if COVID-19 control measures have affected disease transmission, and economic and food security
We analyse publicly available data on self-reported COVID-19 symptoms and deaths in England
Combining novel setting-specific social contact data from over 40,000 individuals in the UK with a mathematical model of COVID transmission, we compare the potential effects of isolation, contact tracing and physical distancing measures on epidemic control.
Interactive dashboard of Facebook colocation data
We estimate timing of hitting particular case numbers by country in Africa.
We examined human movement on multiple geographic scales to provide a complete picture of the overall dynamics while drawing links to their public health implications.
We used critical care admissions in the United Kingdom to evaluate the number of cases and rate of spread for COVID-19 prior to the lockdown on 23 March 2020
We estimated the contribution of asymptomatic individuals in spreading COVID-19.
We undertook a systematic review to look at the duration of hospital and ICU stay for patients with COVID-19
We simulated potential response strategies to assess their effectiveness in three African countries: Niger, Nigeria, and Mauritius.
We evaluated the potential benefits of other respiratory infectious disease vaccines in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
To determine if interventions aimed at air travellers can delay establishment of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a previously unaffected country with no shared border with China.
We present the first results of an ongoing survey (CoMix) to track social contact behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic, and compare social mixing to patterns found in a previous survey.
We evaluated the overdispersion in the number of secondary transmissions of COVID-19
To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.
To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.
We estimate critical care bed demand for COVID-19 cases in England for the next two weeks. Results suggest that current capacity might be reached or exceeded by the end of March 2020.
We discussed the current evidence on the role of climate on COVID-19 transmission.
Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship
To assess the impact of a range of control measures that reduce social mixing on data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China.
We estimate the proportion of observed cases that may have been caused by during the pre-symptomatic period of the corresponding primary cases.
We infer the number of COVID-19 cases based on recently reported deaths. Results suggest that by the time a single COVID-19 death is reported, hundreds to thousands of cases may already be present in the population.
To assess the viability of isolation and contact tracing to control transmission from imported cases of 2019-nCoV.
To understand how human-to-human transmission varied in Wuhan during the early stages of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak.
We evaluated effectiveness of thermal passenger screening for 2019-nCoV infection at airport exit and entry to inform public health decision-making.
The transmissibility of novel Coronavirus in the early stages of the 2019-20 outbreak in Wuhan: Exploring initial point-source exposure sizes and durations using scenario analysis
To identify changes in the reproduction number during the course of the outbreak. This analysis will be updated with new data as the epidemic progresses.