Projection of early spread of COVID-19 in Africa
Using a branching process model, initiate from case data in the WHO SITREPs, we estimated the date countries would reach 1000 and 10000 reported cases without any interventions present. We found that, if countries had not initiated interventions, almost all of Africa would now be reporting greating than 1000 cases. Most had as of the end of March, and only roughly a third are now reporting >1000 cases.
Published in Eurosurveillance: Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020