Projection of early spread of COVID-19 in Africa

Status: Paper published at journal | First online: 25-03-2020 | Last update: 11-05-2020

Authors: Carl A.B. Pearson*, Cari Van Schalkwyk, Anna Foss, Kathleen O'Reilly, SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team, CMMID COVID-19 working group & Juliet R C Pulliam.* corresponding author

Summary

Using a branching process model, initiate from case data in the WHO SITREPs, we estimated the date countries would reach 1000 and 10000 reported cases without any interventions present. We found that, if countries had not initiated interventions, almost all of Africa would now be reporting greating than 1000 cases. Most had as of the end of March, and only roughly a third are now reporting >1000 cases.

Initial Report: Projection of early spread of COVID-19 in Africa as of 25 March 2020

Published in Eurosurveillance: Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020