Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

Status: In Progress | First online: 17-03-2020 | Last update: 04-04-2020

Authors: Sam Abbott*, James D Munday, Joel Hellewell, Robin N. Thompson, Nikos I Bosse, CMMID nCov working group, Stefan Flasche, Adam J Kucharski, Rosalind M Eggo & Sebastian Funk.* corresponding author

This study has not yet been peer reviewed.

* This analysis is now archived, please visit the updated version.

updated: 2020-04-04

Note: this is preliminary analysis, has not yet been peer-reviewed and is updated daily as new data becomes available. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. A summary of this report can be downloaded here

Summary

Aim: To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.

Latest estimates as of the 2020-03-19

Region map