Estimating number of cases and spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United Kingdom using critical care admissions, February to March 2020

Status: Paper published at journal | First online: 28-04-2020 | Last update: 07-05-2020

Authors: Mark Jit*, Thibaut Jombart, Emily S Nightingale, Akira Endo, Sam Abbott, CMMID COVID-19 working group & W John Edmunds.* corresponding author

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

Paper available: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632