Estimating number of cases and spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United Kingdom using critical care admissions, February to March 2020

Status: Paper published at journal | First online: 28-04-2020 | Last update: 07-05-2020

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

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