Severity

As Covid-19 is a newly emerging disease, much is still unknown about its severity. This page lists all our work on the severity of Covid-19.

Studies

Status:

Model fitting of early 2020 increase in burials in Mogadishu (Somalia) suggests possible early introduction of SARS-CoV-2

Status
Paper under peer review
First online
17-06-2021
Last update
17-06-2021

We fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery of the main cemeteries in Mogadishu (Somalia) that showed an unexplained and sustained rise of burials in the period of late February to July 2020. Under the assumption that these excess deaths in Mogadishu were directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection we arrived at median estimates of October-November 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.3-1.5), stemming from the early and slow rise of excess deaths and their long plateau. Subject to study assumptions, a very early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia, while showing lower transmissibility in the first epidemic wave than observed in European settings.

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Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Status
Paper published at journal
First online
13-04-2020
Last update
16-06-2020

The risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries is needed to inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk. We evaluated the global prevalence of underlying conditions associated with severe COVID-19 disease.

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