Projected epidemics in LMIC with and without interventions
Forecasts and projections
This page list all our work on forecasts and projections for Covid-19.
We estimate timing of hitting particular case numbers by country in Africa.
We used critical care admissions in the United Kingdom to evaluate the number of cases and rate of spread for COVID-19 prior to the lockdown on 23 March 2020
We estimate critical care bed demand for COVID-19 cases in England for the next two weeks. Results suggest that current capacity might be reached or exceeded by the end of March 2020.
We infer the number of COVID-19 cases based on recently reported deaths. Results suggest that by the time a single COVID-19 death is reported, hundreds to thousands of cases may already be present in the population.