We fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery of the main cemeteries in Mogadishu (Somalia) that showed an unexplained and sustained rise of burials in the period of late February to July 2020. Under the assumption that these excess deaths in Mogadishu were directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection we arrived at median estimates of October-November 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.3-1.5), stemming from the early and slow rise of excess deaths and their long plateau. Subject to study assumptions, a very early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia, while showing lower transmissibility in the first epidemic wave than observed in European settings.
This page list all our work on Covid-19 in lower & middle income countries
We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against COVID-19 in Sindh, Pakistan
Using globally available data sources with mathematical models, we analysed the transmissibility and severity of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, 501Y.V2, in South Africa.
We simulated potential response strategies to assess their effectiveness in three African countries: Niger, Nigeria, and Mauritius.
To compare the health benefits of sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa with the risk of acquiring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection through visiting routine vaccination service delivery points.
The risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries is needed to inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk. We evaluated the global prevalence of underlying conditions associated with severe COVID-19 disease.
Projected epidemics in LMIC with and without interventions
We analyse social contact data from Kenyan informal settlements to estimate if COVID-19 control measures have affected disease transmission, and economic and food security
We estimate timing of hitting particular case numbers by country in Africa.
We examined human movement on multiple geographic scales to provide a complete picture of the overall dynamics while drawing links to their public health implications.