We fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery of the main cemeteries in Mogadishu (Somalia) that showed an unexplained and sustained rise of burials in the period of late February to July 2020. Under the assumption that these excess deaths in Mogadishu were directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection we arrived at median estimates of October-November 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.3-1.5), stemming from the early and slow rise of excess deaths and their long plateau. Subject to study assumptions, a very early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia, while showing lower transmissibility in the first epidemic wave than observed in European settings.
Analysis of B.1.617.2 dynamics in the UK.
We present one full year of CoMix contact survey data from participants in England between March 2020 and March 2021 to track social contact behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection risk in a workplace cohort in the United States.
We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against COVID-19 in Sindh, Pakistan
We present the analyses of the impact of national and local restrictions on the number of setting-specific contacts that people have prior to and during the restrictions from an ongoing survey (CoMix) which tracks social contact behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic.
A second wave of COVID-19 cases in Autumn 2020 led to localised, tiered “Alert Level” restrictions and subsequently a second national lockdown in England. We examine the impact of these tiered restrictions and options for lockdowns in terms of stringency, timing and length.
Using globally available data sources with mathematical models, we analysed the transmissibility and severity of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, 501Y.V2, in South Africa.
Exploring the relationship between the proportion of samples with S-gene target failure and the effective reproduction number of test positive cases over time.
Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases that were reported in 210 countries and territories. We then use these estimates to attempt to reconstruct the pandemic.
We evaluated if Facebook for Good mobility data can provide information about movements within the UK during intervention periods and afterward.
We simulated potential response strategies to assess their effectiveness in three African countries: Niger, Nigeria, and Mauritius.
We estimated the contribution of asymptomatic individuals in spreading COVID-19.
We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission and economic model to explore different scenarios of immunisation programmes over ten years.
We evaluated the effectiveness of the cordon sanitaire in Wuhan to delay or prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 in other major cities in mainland China.
We update the synthetic contact matrices with the most recent data, comparing them to measured contact matrices, and develop customised contact matrices for rural and urban settings. We use these to explore the effects of physical distancing interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic in a transmission model.
Using flight data, prevalence estimates and incidence estimates combined, we calculate the ratio of expected imported cases and local incidence globally.
Systematic review of available literature and media reports to find clusters and extract settings type information.
We estimated the age-specific susceptibility to infection and probability of showing clinical symptoms.
We consider expanding the social bubble of either all households or only single occupance households or households with young children. We assess how the implementation of these strategies during lockdown impacts on the risk for Covid-19 resugence.
We analyse social contact data from Kenyan informal settlements to estimate if COVID-19 control measures have affected disease transmission, and economic and food security
We analyse publicly available data on self-reported COVID-19 symptoms and deaths in England
Combining novel setting-specific social contact data from over 40,000 individuals in the UK with a mathematical model of COVID transmission, we compare the potential effects of isolation, contact tracing and physical distancing measures on epidemic control.
Interactive dashboard of Facebook colocation data
We estimate timing of hitting particular case numbers by country in Africa.
We examined human movement on multiple geographic scales to provide a complete picture of the overall dynamics while drawing links to their public health implications.
We present the first results of an ongoing survey (CoMix) to track social contact behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic, and compare social mixing to patterns found in a previous survey.
We evaluated the overdispersion in the number of secondary transmissions of COVID-19
To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.
To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.
We estimate critical care bed demand for COVID-19 cases in England for the next two weeks. Results suggest that current capacity might be reached or exceeded by the end of March 2020.
We discussed the current evidence on the role of climate on COVID-19 transmission.
To assess the impact of a range of control measures that reduce social mixing on data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China.
We infer the number of COVID-19 cases based on recently reported deaths. Results suggest that by the time a single COVID-19 death is reported, hundreds to thousands of cases may already be present in the population.
To understand how human-to-human transmission varied in Wuhan during the early stages of the 2019-2020 COVID-19 outbreak.
The transmissibility of novel Coronavirus in the early stages of the 2019-20 outbreak in Wuhan: Exploring initial point-source exposure sizes and durations using scenario analysis
To identify changes in the reproduction number during the course of the outbreak. This analysis will be updated with new data as the epidemic progresses.