Covid-19

Multiple members of CMMID are working on the ongoing Covid-19 (previously referred to as novel coronavirus or nCov) outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This page shows an overview of our work. We regularly update this page with new and updated work.

Our group has made multiple interactive applications where some of our work can be explored further.

We also translated some of our posts in Chinese: 中文版

The list below shows all our work on this topic. To only show studies for a specific topic, select from the adjacent listlist above.

Studies

Status:

Test to release from isolation after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2

Status
Report
First online
23-12-2021
Last update
30-12-2021

Using a model of individual infectiousness and testing with lateral flow tests (LFT), we evaluate test-to-release policies against conventional fixed-duration isolation policies in terms of excess days of infectiousness, days saved, and tests used.

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Model fitting of early 2020 increase in burials in Mogadishu (Somalia) suggests possible early introduction of SARS-CoV-2

Status
Paper under peer review
First online
17-06-2021
Last update
17-06-2021

We fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery of the main cemeteries in Mogadishu (Somalia) that showed an unexplained and sustained rise of burials in the period of late February to July 2020. Under the assumption that these excess deaths in Mogadishu were directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection we arrived at median estimates of October-November 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.3-1.5), stemming from the early and slow rise of excess deaths and their long plateau. Subject to study assumptions, a very early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia, while showing lower transmissibility in the first epidemic wave than observed in European settings.

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Quarantine and testing strategies to reduce transmission risk from imported SARS-CoV-2 infections: a global modelling study

Status
Paper under peer review
First online
11-06-2021
Last update
11-06-2021

We evaluate the utility of pre and post-flight PCR and lateral flow testing (LFT) to reduce transmission risk from infected arrivals and to reduce the duration of, or replace, quarantine. We also estimate the effectiveness of each strategy relative to domestic incidence, and limits of achievable risk reduction, for 99 countries where flight data and case numbers are estimated.

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The impact of local and national restrictions in response to COVID-19 on social contacts in the England: a longitudinal natural experiment.

Status
Paper published at journal
First online
19-10-2020
Last update
19-02-2021

We present the analyses of the impact of national and local restrictions on the number of setting-specific contacts that people have prior to and during the restrictions from an ongoing survey (CoMix) which tracks social contact behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Projecting contact matrices in 177 geographical regions: an update and comparison with empirical data for the COVID-19 era

Status
Paper under peer review
First online
13-08-2020
Last update
13-08-2020

We update the synthetic contact matrices with the most recent data, comparing them to measured contact matrices, and develop customised contact matrices for rural and urban settings. We use these to explore the effects of physical distancing interventions for the COVID-19 pandemic in a transmission model.

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Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Status
Paper published at journal
First online
13-04-2020
Last update
16-06-2020

The risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries is needed to inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk. We evaluated the global prevalence of underlying conditions associated with severe COVID-19 disease.

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The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Status
Paper published at journal
First online
01-04-2020
Last update
06-06-2020

We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of COVID-19 intervention scenarios in the UK, including the introduction of school closures, social distancing, shielding of elderly groups, self-isolation of symptomatic cases, and extreme "lockdown"-type restrictions.

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Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study

Status
Paper published at journal
First online
23-04-2020
Last update
26-05-2020

Combining novel setting-specific social contact data from over 40,000 individuals in the UK with a mathematical model of COVID transmission, we compare the potential effects of isolation, contact tracing and physical distancing measures on epidemic control.

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Inferring cases from recent deaths

Status
Paper under peer review
First online
03-03-2020
Last update
04-03-2020

We infer the number of COVID-19 cases based on recently reported deaths. Results suggest that by the time a single COVID-19 death is reported, hundreds to thousands of cases may already be present in the population.

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